Traveling musicians are a tough lot. They can withstand sleep deprivation, nutritional neglect, mechanical failures, sketchy promoters and many other ailments. The one phenomena that may derail the hopes and dreams of every tour musician is Peak Oil. In 1956, despite being considered insane by his peers, American geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that the domestic supply of oil in the United States would peak and begin decreasing in 1970. As the United States went from being the number one supplier of oil in the world to the number one consumer, Hubbert’s prediction gained the credibility it deserved. He went on to predict that world oil-production would peak in 1995. Due to several factors (the Alberta tar sands playing a big part) his prediction was off by about ten or fifteen years. Still, we are faced with a scarcity in oil supplies that has led to famine, poverty, recession and worst of all, war. Global depletion of not only crude oil but all sources of non-renewable energy will severely strain the ease and ability for bands to tour extensively but with changes in both technology and life style limited touring will be possible.

Photo by Flickr user Alex E. Proimos

In July 2008, many bands traveling in gas guzzling vans were biting their lips when they had to fill their tanks. This was due to the fact that the price of oil had sky rocketed to $145 USD a barrel. The price of oil had doubled in the past two years. Due to a collapse in the American housing market and depressed consumer confidence, the World Economy entered a recession in 2009. This caused the price of oil to drop back below the $35 a barrel mark, wreaking economic havoc in resource dependent Alberta. While at the time this article was written the price of oil is below $100, as the global economy recovers so will the price of oil. These volatile price swings should be clear indicators to touring musicians that nothing is consistent and preparing for peak oil is crucial. While the price is at a comfortable low, recent happenings such as the BP Gulf Oil Spill, Nigerian pipeline bombings and fuel riots in India keep the price of oil climbing. Without going into further geopolitical detail, let’s discuss what this means to the average musician. It takes a lot of energy to transport a band. There won’t be any Toyota Prius’ or Honda Civics hauling bands and gear around any time soon. The most common form of transportation for a band is the van with trailer. The gas tank size on any decent van is at least over one hundred litres and will cost over a hundred dollars to fill at the gas pump. The gas prices are set by a number of factors, primarily scarcity. Trendhunter.com describes a scarcity situation which Hurricane Ike provided,

“Hurricane Ike has put gas prices at over $5 in middle America. As more and more service stations tell their customers that they are all out of gas, some of those customers have become increasingly angry, and in some cases, have threatened to kill the store managers.

Hurricane Ike struck Galveston, Texas and exorbitant gasoline prices struck Nashville almost exactly at the same time. Gas immediately went to $5.29 per gallon.  Hurricane Ike shut down oil rigs and refineries, but the storm was 800 miles away and it never rained in Nashville because of Hurricane Ike. The perceived shortage even caused some shortages of gasoline.”

Scary stuff. Imagine being a band from Canada, stranded in Nashville due to a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. You may not budget for having to pay four times what you are used to paying at the pump. Situations like this not only display the interconnectedness of our globalized world but also provide an example of why awareness towards Peak Oil is critical. Even a small drop in the continuous supply of oil will cause drastic spikes in fuel prices. Now you may be asking yourself, what can I do to protect myself against this? Let’s examine some solutions.

Choose Your Fuel Wisely

One of the biggest innovations in motor vehicle technology was the flex fuel engine.  Flex fuel technology has actually been around since the Ford Model T.  Whether it’s the GMC Savana, Ford Econoline or Dodge Caravan, there is a wide variety of options that may attract touring bands towards choosing a flex fuel vehicle. When faced with a fuel shortage, a flex fuel engine may run on gasoline, diesel or ethanol, depending on the make and model. Gasoline is usually the first fuel to go as it has the highest number of consumers. Diesel is plentiful, especially in rural settings. Ethanol is gaining popularity, especially in the Corn-Belt of the USA which encompasses several states. You would have to be in an apocalyptic situation to be unable to obtain gasoline, diesel or ethanol. If that happens, drop your gear and start running for the woods. Another option is natural gas, or propane. There is enough natural gas to last humanity hundreds of years at the current rate of consumption and is often quite cheaper and more cost effective than gasoline. The only tour capable van powered by propane for sale in North America is the Ford E-250. Keep your eyes open as more manufacturers may provide propane powered vehicles as the price of gas rises. One solution for bands that can’t afford a flex fuel vehicle, especially for those from the prairies, is to obtain a fuel card from either UFA or Co-Op. Fuel from card lock locations, used by farmers, truckers or others doing business, may only be accessed by members of the association. This protects users from price gouging, gas shortages or public panics. Having a gas card could mean the difference between being stranded on some lonely highway and making it home safely. Though there is an activation fee, quite often you’ll save at least 3 cents per litre on fuel so these cards pay themselves off in short time.

The End Is Near

Peak Oil will not only effect transportation. Every facet of our modern life will undo dramatic changes. Think about it, the food you eat, the clothes you wear, the instruments you play and all the tools necessary to stay organized and safe on tour require oil in production, packaging and quite often usage. Soon a scarcity in oil will drive the price of consumer goods through the roof. Making a stock pile of some essential goods now while the price is low will help save you a lot of grief and money down the road when Peak Oil really begins to make a difference in your life. As a drummer, I have made my own stash of equipment that I feel will become expensive or unattainable in the future. This includes drum heads (I prefer the Japanese models), drum sticks (hickory imported from the USA) and cymbals (all the way from Turkey). For guitar players, stocking up on strings, pick-ups, picks, tubes and cords is advisable. Anyone into recording should make sure to have a well maintained computer, mixer or recording device as it takes a lot of fossil fuels to produce these products. Making an emergency plan for your band in case of fuel shortages is a good idea. Ensure that everybody can pitch money for fuel if the price skyrockets within the course of your tour.  Having basic survival, camping and orientation skills is essential not only for touring musicians but for anybody living in these uncertain times. Investing in a solar generator for AC appliances, notably cell phones or laptops, could help you stay in contact with loved ones if you’re stranded. Xantrex is the leader in portable, off-grid power generation.

If you are given the opportunity to tour Europe, Asia or Australia, don’t even consider the financial or environmental consequences and take it. Go there. Experience other parts of the world because according to airliners.net,

“There will be social unrest and a strong reduction of business and government activity and very serious unemployment. Eventually, a large proportion of the demand for air travel will be almost completely destroyed, with the risk of the aviation adventure going out of business, with the exception of perhaps a handful of airlines. Once again, air travel will be reserved for the rich and for government business and the world will become a larger place again.”

If there’s two things that don’t go along with being in a band, it’s having lots of money and government business. As the years go by and the supply chain gets tightened, less bands will be able to travel overseas each year. The only major airline projected to make significant gains in near future is Air Emirates, whose Middle Eastern base profits from oil scarcity. While traveling via boat is an option, it’s feasibility is extremely limited. Sea travel cannot compete with air travel when it comes to convenience, timing, and right now, affordability. Only the most elite of popular artists will be able to tour overseas in a timely and comfortable manner once peak oil stalls the global economy. The window of time in which we are able to travel around the world cheaply and quickly is shutting. All musicians should take the chance and tour on a different continent while the good times are still burning.

Global depletion of not only crude oil but of all non-renewable energy sources will severely strain the ease and ability for bands to tour extensively but with changes in both technology and life style, limited touring will be possible. Being prepared both physically and mentally will make the greatest transition in industrialized history easier to bear for the average musician. Knowing the stats, being independent and having a stash of essential goods are critical peak oil survival tips. The coming years will be tough but this author is confident that human ingenuity, adaptability and sheer tenacity will see us to the point where bands can comfortably tour while making a profit once again.

BIBLIO:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
http://www.trendhunter.com/trends/529-gas-prices-hurricane-ike
http://industry.bnet.com/auto/
http://www.ufa.net/petroleum/cardlock.html
http://www.xantrex.com/
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-articles/read.main?id=81